Curse

BoredJoe · Dec 22, 2009, 09:53 PM // 21:53

or kill 1,000,000,000,000 boars

Muwhahahahahaha Ha · Dec 22, 2009, 10:06 PM // 22:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowman relic

i did some math and was wondering if its true because polar bear drop is .34% if u do the run 300 times does it pretty much guarentee a mini polar bear in those 300 runs?

while it seems the more accepted % s .034%, its like other people have said. yes in theory that's how statistics work, but statistics only work like that when put out to infinity. so basically one can never expect getting it in one try, but the possibility is there. supposing the chance is .034% then the odds are 1:2940. but due to the reality of statistics, with something that low, a more real way of testing it would be to repeat the trial about 2-4 times more than the "max". so in reality, to "ensure" a MPB, one would need to do the run 5880-11760 times to "ensure" a MPB because of the way odds end up screwing people. it's kind of like how one can flip a coin 8 times and get heads 6/8 even though the odds are 1:1. it's because each time has a 50% chance, and the 50% only comes to light when carried out infinitely.

midnightduo1 · Dec 22, 2009, 10:17 PM // 22:17

winning the lottery is like one in 35 million, at least the one i buy anyways

isildorbiafra · Dec 22, 2009, 10:22 PM // 22:22

Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.

Malache · Dec 22, 2009, 10:25 PM // 22:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by isildorbiafra

Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.

Or you could do that *lol*

Even if you don't get one, you get plenty of shards to trade in for prezzies or sell, so it's not like it's a total loss...

Mustache Mayhem · Dec 22, 2009, 10:25 PM // 22:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by isildorbiafra

Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.

rofl yeah they'd probably send you down to the coding department.. doubt those guys ever get laid

Barrage · Dec 22, 2009, 10:33 PM // 22:33

The fraction equivalent of .035% is 1/2857. But since this is probability we are talking about you could get it on run 1 or 2857, it's all luck

My New Name · Dec 22, 2009, 10:57 PM // 22:57

imagine the chances of getting a polar bear as throwing a dice that has 2857 sides...
(well it would be more of a ball than a dice but meh) the mini polar bear is only on 1 side you have wintergreen candy on 428 sides(15%) etc...
so you can throw the dice as many times as you like but you may never get that 1 side you need...All i can say is keep trying

i know i am going to :P

Lord Dagon · Dec 22, 2009, 11:30 PM // 23:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by isildorbiafra

Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.

Lmao that is certainly 1 way to get a MPB. Now, you just have to choose ther person and go for it roflmao

bebe · Dec 23, 2009, 12:04 AM // 00:04

Winning the Lotto sounds about right.. and that's the jackpot.. xD

fricker · Dec 23, 2009, 12:28 AM // 00:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mustache Mayhem

rofl yeah they'd probably send you down to the coding department.. doubt those guys ever get laid

You made me laugh, thanks.

Kapral · Dec 23, 2009, 12:30 AM // 00:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mustache Mayhem

rofl yeah they'd probably send you down to the coding department.. doubt those guys ever get laid

Oh come on, not all coders are like the guy in Grandma's Boy

YunSooJin · Dec 23, 2009, 12:33 AM // 00:33

I'm guessing this thread is a good example of why most people don't bother number crunching in games

IattackU · Dec 23, 2009, 12:34 AM // 00:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Sarah Lauren

nope everytime you open it you have a chance 1/30.000 to get one. It doesnt get more everytime you try it. Everytime its 1/30.000

Sarah

To elaborate. Each chest opening is a different event, Each event has a set % chance of a certain item dropping. Each event is separate from every other event. Therefore chances do not increase just because one has open said chest 30 million times or 1 time. The chances are the same, it's all just luck.

FengShuiDove · Dec 23, 2009, 12:44 AM // 00:44

Heh, the lottery plays on this common failure of the human cognitive apparatus. By presenting odds that are incomprehensible, they can make it seem like you're getting a relatively good deal. For example, 1 in 3000 doesn't seem so bad, but it's an absolutely awful lot to be stacked against. It *sounds* better than 1 in 1x10^6, but if the reward is null for all participating but the 1/xxx, you really shouldn't bet on anything less than 50%.

Regardless, the rewards for those who are not the lucky one are greater than zero, and for many people, significantly better than an equal time investment elsewhere. That's pretty much what most well-grounded people realize before they even talk to the Rift Warden. You're doing it for the reward that you're guaranteed. The Polar Bear exists strictly as a "Huh, well there's that too," factor.

P.S. If the drop rate is .00035%, that means the 1/x ratio is 3.5x10^-6, or 1/285,714. Realistically though, the drop rate isn't important at all.

Axeman002 · Dec 23, 2009, 12:56 AM // 00:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by fengshuidove

heh, the lottery plays on this common failure of the human cognitive apparatus. By presenting odds that are incomprehensible, they can make it seem like you're getting a relatively good deal. For example, 1 in 3000 doesn't seem so bad, but it's an absolutely awful lot to be stacked against. It *sounds* better than 1 in 1x10^6, but if the reward is null for all participating but the 1/xxx, you really shouldn't bet on anything less than 50%.

Regardless, the rewards for those who are not the lucky one are greater than zero, and for many people, significantly better than an equal time investment elsewhere. That's pretty much what most well-grounded people realize before they even talk to the rift warden. You're doing it for the reward that you're guaranteed. The polar bear exists strictly as a "huh, well there's that too," factor.

P.s. If the drop rate is .00035%, that means the 1/x ratio is 3.5x10^-6, or 1/285,714. Realistically though, the drop rate isn't important at all.

taxi!.........

BlueXIV · Dec 23, 2009, 01:07 AM // 01:07

Statistically, repeating the mean times of trials (2857 in this case, if that is indeed the drop rate), would only give you a 1-(e^-1) chance of getting a success. So if you really did grind it out all wintersday and opened the damned chest 2857 times (which at 5 minutes a run, would be a little under 240 hours, or ten days straight, no breaks), you would only have a 63.2% chance of getting the bear.

Feeling lucky punks? :P

Edit: oh and @OP, statistics says that if you did the quest an reasonably infinite amount of times, you would get 1 MPB for every 2857 quests you do. There is nothing that guarantees that you'll get anything in the first 2857 times however.

Edit2: did a bit more number crunching. If you do average a polarbear every 2857 quests, then that would be 1400e (assuming all the rumors of price drops are fake)/2857 = .49e, or perhaps around 3 plats of extra utility you make per run. I'll assume you get 15 shards and 5 consumables, averaging to 8 consumables per run, averaging to around 1.9k per run in terms of consumables. So overall, you are making an average of 1.9k+3k = 4.9k per 5 minute run, or around 1 plat a minute if you somehow can get consistent 5 minutes without using any consumables. A more conservative estimate would be 8 minutes a run on average with no consumables. So that would be 612.5g per minute, or 36.75 plats an hour. So all in all, it's not the most terrible run, but if you can make more than 40plat/hour, I recommend you do something else :P

Of course, this is assuming you don't find intrinsic value in farming holiday quests, because there is no utility of "fun" added in to the equation. Also, most people would rather farm more reliable sources of income because of the law of diminishing marginal utility. So if you end goal is a miniature polar bear, farming ectos during this time, (which you can get 15 minute runs with a VwK farmer, killing 50 smites and some other stuff for an average of 1.1 ecto plus gold drops per run, making around 10k in 15 minutes, or a 667g per minute with LOW variance) would be safer and most likely, faster.

This concludes the wintersday economics review

mrseasonalt · Dec 23, 2009, 01:45 AM // 01:45

from a statistic point of view if you did do it every 5 minutes for ten days you would have done 2880 runs which would technically give you a >100% chance of getting the bear if that is the actual drop rate. Now obviously you are not guaranteed a bear no matter how many times you do a run but i dont know where u got that 60 whatever percent.

More importantly only the game designers know the exact drop rate because they are the only ones who know the formula used to calculate the chances of a person getting the bear on a particular opening of the chest( just like there is a formula for rolling the /roll command)

Eragon Zarroc · Dec 23, 2009, 01:48 AM // 01:48

so, what would be the probability of getting a bear twice in a row blue? ;-)

Barrage · Dec 23, 2009, 01:54 AM // 01:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eragon Zarroc

so, what would be the probability of getting a bear twice in a row blue? ;-)

1 in 8162449